Guide 05 of 20
Prices, Shortages and Surpluses
Every town has its own supply for each unlocked good. Prices emerge from that local situation and change as the world trades around you.
Fair market price
The fair market price is the town's current reference value for one unit of a good. Your Low, Fair and High pricing stances are based on it.
Fair does not mean guaranteed. It is a guide to the current market, not a promise that every customer will buy. Individual budgets, needs, freshness and negotiation behavior still matter.
Shortages
A shortage means local supply is low compared with need. This generally creates:
- Higher fair prices
- Stronger customer interest
- Better opportunities for incoming merchants
- A greater chance of political intervention
Selling the missing good helps resolve the shortage. A large delivery can lower its fair price immediately, so later customers may see different pricing options from earlier customers.
Surpluses
A surplus means the town has more of a good than it currently needs. This generally creates:
- Lower local purchase prices
- Weaker customer demand
- Opportunities to buy and carry the good elsewhere
A surplus is not automatically profitable. Add travel cost, time, risk, permit fees and freshness loss before choosing a destination.
Your trades matter
The player is not merely observing the economy:
- Buying removes supply and can push prices upward.
- Selling adds supply and can push prices downward.
- Larger quantities have a stronger effect.
- Rival purchases and sales also move local conditions.
- Towns slowly recover and rebalance when merchants leave them alone.
Money spent in a town can also support its relative wealth over time. Town wealth is comparative: if trade raises every town together, no single town gains the same advantage it would from attracting more spending than its neighbors.
Finding opportunities
Use several sources rather than trusting a single clue:
- Read the newspaper for major shortages and surpluses.
- Check rumours for possible future changes.
- Review the Merchant Notebook's last recorded town prices.
- Compare routes and permit fees.
- Leave room for the market to change before you arrive.
The largest demo opportunities often point toward newly unlocked towns, encouraging exploration, but not every profitable trade will lead somewhere new.